2012 President · FL
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 1,073 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 45%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.877) = 4.123
- Absolute miss = |4.123| = 4.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30482, race ID 662 (538 database).