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2012 Senate · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 574 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 29%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.23% · Republican 30.53%

D+34.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 29 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.229 − 30.528 = 34.701
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (34.701) = -3.701
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.701| = 3.701

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30473, race ID 1484 (538 database).