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2012 President · CO

Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.49% · Republican 46.13%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.492 − 46.127 = 5.365
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.365) = -2.365
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.365| = 2.365

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30466, race ID 658 (538 database).