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2012 House · ND-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.70% · Republican 54.89%

R+13.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.701 − 54.893 = -13.192
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-13.192) = 3.192
  4. Absolute miss = |3.192| = 3.192

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30465, race ID 5194 (538 database).