2012 Governor · ND
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 28% · Republican 62%
R+34.0
The certified result
Democrat 34.31% · Republican 63.09%
R+28.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 28 − 62 = -34.00
- Actual margin = 34.312 − 63.095 = -28.783
- Signed miss = -34.00 − (-28.783) = -5.217
- Absolute miss = |-5.217| = 5.217
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30465, race ID 1264 (538 database).