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2012 President · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 540 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 55%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.38% · Republican 57.17%

R+15.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 55 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.383 − 57.167 = -15.784
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-15.784) = -0.216
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.216| = 0.216

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30462, race ID 696 (538 database).