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2012 Senate · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 540 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 54%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.62% · Republican 56.46%

R+15.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 54 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.623 − 56.456 = -15.833
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-15.833) = 0.833
  4. Absolute miss = |0.833| = 0.833

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30462, race ID 1498 (538 database).