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2012 President · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 574 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.48% · Republican 53.30%

R+7.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.482 − 53.299 = -7.817
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-7.817) = -0.183
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.183| = 0.183

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30438, race ID 663 (538 database).