Skip to content

2012 President · FL

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 770 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.877) = -0.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.877| = 0.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30426, race ID 662 (538 database).