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2012 President · national

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 2,700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.91% · Republican 46.97%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.909 − 46.974 = 3.935
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (3.935) = -8.935
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.935| = 8.935

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30422, race ID 37 (538 database).