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2012 President · OH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (2.979) = -4.978
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.978| = 4.978

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30411, race ID 688 (538 database).