2012 Senate · MN
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 65% · Republican 22%
D+43.0
The certified result
Democrat 65.23% · Republican 30.53%
D+34.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 65 − 22 = 43.00
- Actual margin = 65.229 − 30.528 = 34.701
- Signed miss = 43.00 − (34.701) = 8.299
- Absolute miss = |8.299| = 8.299
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30384, race ID 1484 (538 database).