Skip to content

2012 Senate · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 1,015 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (6.001) = -2.001
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.001| = 2.001

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30383, race ID 1494 (538 database).