2012 President · OH
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 741 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 44%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%
D+3.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.979) = 1.022
- Absolute miss = |1.022| = 1.022
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30351, race ID 688 (538 database).