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2012 President · WI

Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (6.838) = -1.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.838| = 1.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30350, race ID 701 (538 database).