2012 Senate · FL
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 1,001 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%
D+13.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (13.006) = -8.006
- Absolute miss = |-8.006| = 8.006
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30334, race ID 1477 (538 database).