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2012 President · CO

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 1,128 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.49% · Republican 46.13%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.492 − 46.127 = 5.365
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.365) = -5.365
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.365| = 5.365

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30316, race ID 658 (538 database).