Skip to content

2012 President · NV

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 1,042 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.36% · Republican 45.67%

D+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.356 − 45.675 = 6.681
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (6.681) = -3.681
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.681| = 3.681

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30314, race ID 686 (538 database).