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2012 Senate · NV

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 1,042 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.71% · Republican 45.87%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.706 − 45.866 = -1.160
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.160) = -1.840
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.840| = 1.840

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30314, race ID 1489 (538 database).