2012 President · CT
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.06% · Republican 40.73%
D+17.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 58.057 − 40.725 = 17.332
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (17.332) = -10.331
- Absolute miss = |-10.331| = 10.331
The poll overstated the Republican by 10.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30300, race ID 659 (538 database).