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2012 Senate · CT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 52.45% · Republican 39.99%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.454 − 39.991 = 12.463
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (12.463) = -12.463
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.463| = 12.463

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.5 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30300, race ID 1475 (538 database).