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2012 President · AZ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.59% · Republican 53.66%

R+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.590 − 53.655 = -9.065
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-9.065) = 1.065
  4. Absolute miss = |1.065| = 1.065

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30295, race ID 656 (538 database).