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2012 President · NV

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 636 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.36% · Republican 45.67%

D+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.356 − 45.675 = 6.681
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (6.681) = -4.681
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.681| = 4.681

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30273, race ID 686 (538 database).