Skip to content

2012 Senate · NV

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 636 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 44.71% · Republican 45.87%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.706 − 45.866 = -1.160
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.160) = 1.160
  4. Absolute miss = |1.160| = 1.160

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30273, race ID 1489 (538 database).