Skip to content

2012 Governor · NH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 42.52%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.611 − 42.518 = 12.093
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (12.093) = -14.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.093| = 14.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30260, race ID 1262 (538 database).