2012 President · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 1,412 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 41%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.06% · Republican 40.73%
D+17.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 41 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 58.057 − 40.725 = 17.332
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (17.332) = -3.331
- Absolute miss = |-3.331| = 3.331
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30255, race ID 659 (538 database).