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2012 Senate · IN

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 38%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.04% · Republican 44.28%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 38 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.044 − 44.280 = 5.764
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (5.764) = -3.764
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.764| = 3.764

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30244, race ID 1479 (538 database).