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2012 President · CT

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 575 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 40%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.06% · Republican 40.73%

D+17.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 40 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.057 − 40.725 = 17.332
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (17.332) = -4.331
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.331| = 4.331

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30236, race ID 659 (538 database).