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2012 Senate · CT

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 575 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.45% · Republican 39.99%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.454 − 39.991 = 12.463
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (12.463) = -8.463
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.463| = 8.463

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30236, race ID 1475 (538 database).