2012 President · national
CBS News · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 790 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.91% · Republican 46.97%
D+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 50.909 − 46.974 = 3.935
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.935) = -1.935
- Absolute miss = |-1.935| = 1.935
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30225, race ID 37 (538 database).