2012 Governor · ND
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 53%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 34.31% · Republican 63.09%
R+28.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 53 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 34.312 − 63.095 = -28.783
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-28.783) = 14.783
- Absolute miss = |14.783| = 14.783
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30224, race ID 1264 (538 database).