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2012 President · FL

Angus Reid Global · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 49%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.877) = -5.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.877| = 5.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30208, race ID 662 (538 database).