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2012 President · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 444 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 46.59%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.972 − 46.587 = 5.385
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.385) = -0.385
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.385| = 0.385

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30203, race ID 691 (538 database).