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2012 Senate · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 444 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 37%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.69% · Republican 44.59%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 37 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.690 − 44.588 = 9.102
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (9.102) = -1.102
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.102| = 1.102

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30203, race ID 1495 (538 database).