2012 Senate · OH
Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 39%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%
D+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 39 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (6.001) = 0.999
- Absolute miss = |0.999| = 0.999
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30199, race ID 1494 (538 database).