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2012 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 364 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 41%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.75% · Republican 45.98%

D+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 41 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.750 − 45.985 = 3.765
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (3.765) = -6.765
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.765| = 6.765

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30197, race ID 5137 (538 database).