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2012 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 773 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 35%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 42.52%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 35 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.611 − 42.518 = 12.093
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (12.093) = -4.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.093| = 4.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30197, race ID 1262 (538 database).