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2012 President · national

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 1,402 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.91% · Republican 46.97%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.909 − 46.974 = 3.935
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (3.935) = -6.935
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.935| = 6.935

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30196, race ID 37 (538 database).