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2012 President · MI

Angus Reid Global · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 551 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 40%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.21% · Republican 44.71%

D+9.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.208 − 44.711 = 9.497
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (9.497) = -0.497
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.497| = 0.497

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30180, race ID 675 (538 database).