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2012 Senate · FL

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 41%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%

D+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (13.006) = -9.006
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.006| = 9.006

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30174, race ID 1477 (538 database).