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2012 President · WI

Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (6.838) = -3.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.838| = 3.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30158, race ID 701 (538 database).