2012 President · FL
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 46%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.877) = 0.123
- Absolute miss = |0.123| = 0.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30152, race ID 662 (538 database).