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2012 President · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.49% · Republican 46.13%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.492 − 46.127 = 5.365
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.365) = -0.365
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.365| = 0.365

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30104, race ID 658 (538 database).