1998 Senate · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 47%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.77% · Republican 52.68%
R+8.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 47 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 43.771 − 52.676 = -8.905
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-8.905) = -2.095
- Absolute miss = |-2.095| = 2.095
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26273, race ID 1735 (538 database).