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1998 Senate · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 1998-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 540 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 62%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.53% · Republican 56.46%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 62 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.534 − 56.460 = -12.926
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-12.926) = -15.074
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.074| = 15.074

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26255, race ID 1741 (538 database).