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1998 Governor · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 1998-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 540 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 52%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.69% · Republican 50.05%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 52 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.689 − 50.048 = -5.359
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-5.359) = -9.641
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.641| = 9.641

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26255, race ID 1456 (538 database).