Skip to content

1998 Governor · WI

St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute · fieldwork ended 1998-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 415 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 63%

R+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.70% · Republican 59.66%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 63 = -35.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.699 − 59.664 = -20.965
  3. Signed miss = -35.00 − (-20.965) = -14.034
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.034| = 14.034

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26233, race ID 1466 (538 database).