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1998 Governor · NY

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 1998-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 547 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 57%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.47% · Republican 44.59%

R+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 57 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.466 − 44.591 = -14.125
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-14.125) = -18.875
  4. Absolute miss = |-18.875| = 18.875

The poll overstated the Republican by 18.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26216, race ID 1455 (538 database).