1998 Senate · NY
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 1998-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 584 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 42%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.82% · Republican 33.67%
D+14.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 47.823 − 33.672 = 14.151
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (14.151) = -6.151
- Absolute miss = |-6.151| = 6.151
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26215, race ID 1738 (538 database).