1998 Senate · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 1998-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 1,247 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 29%
D+32.0
The certified result
Democrat 65.15% · Republican 32.37%
D+32.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 29 = 32.00
- Actual margin = 65.146 − 32.368 = 32.778
- Signed miss = 32.00 − (32.778) = -0.778
- Absolute miss = |-0.778| = 0.778
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26208, race ID 1723 (538 database).